Chinese experts are confident that GDP will surpass the US by 2030

 Chinese experts are confident that GDP will surpass the US by 2030

The South China Morning Post (SCMP) quoted a senior Beijing adviser as saying that foreign investors' sell-offs in bonds and war in Ukraine will not stop China's progress to overtake the US as the world leader. largest economy in the world by 2030.

Russia's attack comes at a time of economic pressure, increasing tensions between the West and China, and uncertainties arising from the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 epidemic.

Former Deputy Director of the World Bank, Mr. Justin Lin Yifu is speaking. (Photo: Simon Song).

“I am quite confident in my prediction that China will overtake the US by 2030,” said Justin Lin Yifu, former deputy director of the International Bank and now a professor at Peking University.

“The Russia-Ukraine conflict will have an effect on China, and at the same time the US. All countries will grow more slowly.”

Washington and its allies have increased sanctions on Russia, including removing Russian banks from the SWIFT system. The US has stopped importing fuel from Russia, but Europe has not yet applied this measure.

On March 7, Brent crude rose to a 13-year record of $139 a barrel, creating great uncertainty for the global economy.

Strong growth confidence

Mr. Lin, a former Taiwanese officer who defected to the mainland in 1979, believes that inflation in China will not stay so high despite rising food and fuel prices.

On March 5, Premier Li Keqiang set China's consumer price inflation (CPI) target at "about 3%". On March 9, China reported that February CPI increased by 0.9%, similar to the same period last year.

“We hope the war will end soon. If so, the influence [on China's economy] will be limited," said Mr. Lin.

However, a sign of uncertainty has crept into the Chinese bond market. Foreign investors made the rare move of net selling 67 billion yuan ($10.6 billion) in bonds last month.

Currently, the total amount of yuan held by foreign investors is 3.67 trillion ($580 billion). Foreigners were net sellers despite the renminbi's exchange rate against the US dollar approaching a four-year high.

It is not yet clear which organization has sold out as no specific figures have been provided. ANZ bank had estimated earlier that Russia's central bank and funds could hold $140 billion in Chinese bonds.

Mr. Lin, who holds a doctorate at the University of Chicago, is known to be a strong believer that China is capable of sustaining annual growth at around 8% through 2035.