Predicting 5 outcomes for the Russia-Ukraine conflict: 'From evil to good' or damage to both sides?

 Predicting 5 outcomes for the Russia-Ukraine conflict: 'From evil to good' or damage to both sides?

Through discussions with experts, CNBC outlined at least five potential scenarios for the outcome of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine.

The war between the two former Soviet Union countries has entered its second week, and the Ukrainian people and army are still bravely fighting Russian soldiers. However, in the context of Ukraine's current horizontal and vertical attacks, experts believe that it is only a matter of time before the country is overwhelmed by Moscow's military might.

Strategists warn that what happens next for Ukraine could be very bleak, with many predicting the conflict will last longer than expected.

Even in the most optimistic scenario, where Russia withdraws and Ukraine remains a sovereign state, Europe is unlikely to return to the pre-war status quo.

CNBC has studied a number of potential scenarios that can happen to Ukraine, specifically as follows:

1. Russia controls Ukraine locally

Close watchers of the Russia-Ukraine war say the rapidly changing nature of the conflict makes it difficult to predict what might happen next. However, many believe that President Vladimir Putin wants to set up a pro-Russian government in Kiev.

How and when (and if) that will happen is difficult to predict, but the basic scenario for geopolitical consulting firm Eurasia Group over the next three months is that Russia will "gain local control over Ukraine." and establish a puppet government backed by Moscow", while the Russians would capture Kiev after a protracted siege.

Chairman Cliff Kupchan and colleagues at Eurasia added that the "remnants of the current Ukrainian government" would lead the country from the city of Lviv and could receive "active support from the West".

Eurasia also estimates that the flow of refugees from Ukraine to Western European countries can reach between 5 and 10 million people.

2. Purge and Partition

Some analysts say that if Russia takes control of Ukraine locally, Putin's Kremlin may consider dividing the neighboring country into several regions, especially as Russian troops are firmly entrenched in eastern Ukraine. , especially the two regions of Donetsk and Luhansk (ie Donbass).

Commenting on the Atlantic Council, Taras Kuzio, a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, said Moscow had implied that it wanted "to control the entire territory of Ukraine, then to partition this country and purge civilians. ".

"Putin's clear goal is to erase all traces of the identity of the Ukrainian people... This dark vision is in line with the goals Putin once stated when he announced the special military operation in Ukraine as well as as with the Kremlin boss's contempt and hostility towards the Kiev state," Kuzio stressed.

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